Putting Rookies in the Place in the NFL; Thoughts on the '09 Draft

The NFL draft is always an exciting time. However, I usually find the excitement in where my favorite players and friends will end up rather than whether a draft pick is likely to legitimately impact a team in the upcoming season. Much like the MLB draft, players drafted into the NFL are unlikely to have an immediately impact on their team. And, frankly, those that do are likely playing on a pretty bad team. For example, if you look at the players who have been honored with the AP offensive and defensive rookie of the year awards for the past 10 years or so you’ll notice that the recipients (and their teams) rarely saw post-season play.

For example, in 2007 the offensive recipient, Adrian Peterson, and the defensive recipient, Patrick Willis, both played for teams that did not compete in the post-season. Again in 2006, the Titans and the Oilers did not participate in the playoffs yet Vince Young and Carnell Williams received the rookie of the year awards.

Even where successful rookies did play on a successful team, those players were more often than not defensive players, rather than offensive players. In 2004 Jonathan Vilma won rookie of the year, as a line backer, and his team the New York Jets lost in overtime in the second round of the AFC playoffs to the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers went on to beat Philadelphia in the Superbowl that year 24-21. In 2001 a line backer for the Steelers, Kendrell Bell, won the defensive rookie of the year award and saw his team advance to the third round of the AFC playoffs where his team ultimately fell to the Patriots 24-17. The Pats, coached by Belichick and led by quarterback (and Wolverine) Tom Brady, went on to defeat the Rams 20-17 and win the Superbowl that year.

The point of all this is that I find the NFL draft to be somewhat arbitrary. It is unlikely that a single player drafted this weekend is going to make or break their teams’ performance. And, while there is a decent argument to be made that individual football players are always less significant on the field than say, individual basketball players, it is simply not true that some football players do not develop a presence on the field during their professional careers that can make or break a game or even a season.

For example, Tom Brady’s knee injury last year was detrimental to the Patriot’s season. As analysts were quick to point out, Brady’s absence even made the Patriots relatively weak defense more noticeable. Moreover, Matt Cassell was not mentally prepared to step into the role of starting quarterback, having never played that role in his college or pro career.

In the press conference following Brady’s injury, Cassell basically said he wasn’t going to try and be Tom Brady, he was going to try and be Matt Cassell. While not surprising for a guy that played behind two Heisman winners, Palmer and Leinart, at USC, Cassell appeared to have an inferiority complex which became more pronounced as he took the field in the weeks to come. Ultimately Cassell gained confidence and was able to find himself as a professional quarterback by the time the Patriots season reached a disappointing end.

For Cassell, Brady’s injury proved to be a goldmine. He was able to negotiate a lucrative contract and eventually was traded to the Chiefs where he has a better opportunity to see playing time. Yet many players, like Cassell, will not reach their professional peak until they have been in the league for several years. More importantly, as Cassell’s situation proves, a player’s team placement is key to their ability to showcase their skills in the professional arena and their ability to market themselves to other franchises.

It is no surprise that the most successful rookies often play on the least successful teams. When a team has a weaker line-up, rookies are often given more playing time which allows them to bolster their stats while improving their skills and marketability in the professional market. Obviously, everyone wants to win but as a young player in the draft being selected by a team that needs your talent (and isn’t going to waste it on the bench) can be more valuable in long-run than being selected by a winning team that is just insuring themselves against losing their Tom Brady or that is simply looking for trade leverage.